Ateneo vs FEU by the numbers

Today, Ateneo de Manila University takes the first step toward clinching a possible three-peat as UAAP seniors basketball champion.

Ironically, it will be as the underdog against a Far Eastern University squad that has matured and gained experience together. Each has taken a different road to get here.

At the start of the season, the college basketball community wondered aloud if Ateneo still had enough material to win a third straight championship. After all, it’s not every year you lose two Most Valuable Players who are also the top two draft picks in the PBA Rookie Draft in one season, as well as an outstanding point guard. So the question was if this was just a “bridging season” for Ateneo as the Blue Eagles awaited the arrival of the sensational Youth team standout Kiefer Ravena from the Blue Eaglets, and the completion of the residency of seven-foot Greg Slaughter from Smart-Gilas.

For FEU, this season’s dominance was the product of medium-term preparation. This group has been together for four years, and from the start, took even the pre-season tournaments seriously. To their credit, they have been performing consistently well. And this is the first season that the Tamaraws have not had any controversies off the court. Two years ago, there was the shooting of Mac Baracael near the campus. Last year, it was the dismissal of Mark Barroca. The turbulence was always an inescapable distraction. But not this season.

In their first-round clash on July 11, FEU leaned on 25 points from RR Garcia and 13 from Reil Cervantes to prevail, 72-69. Ateneo showed typical balance with Nico Salva, Ryan Buenafe, Kirk Long and rookie Art Dela Cruz each scoring in double figures. In the second round, the Tamaraws once again escaped the Blue Eagles, 74-72, to clinch the first playoff spot. Rookie Terrence Romeo led FEU with 15 points and 10 rebounds, Aldrech Ramos also had 15 points and 10 rebounds, as well. As he would do repeatedly through the season, Garcia would save the day with a three-pointer in the endgame.

Let’s break down some of the numbers that matter.

Offense. FEU leads the UAAP with 75.4 points per game, while Ateneo is second with 71.1. The placing is more or less to be expected, because FEU is getting its peak, while Ateneo lost a lot of firepower from last season. More crucial, though, is FEU’s ability to hit the big shot and come back at the end of a game, as they did against De La Salle in their first Final Four victory for coach Glen Capacio.

Defense. Ateneo is number one, allowing only 62.9 point per game.

Coach Norman Black’s proviso is that you play defense, and play it consistently. He expected adjustments early in the season, but defense is less a variable than offense. FEU is fifth, allowing 68.9 points per game. This is a bit ironic, considering their coach is one of the best defensive guards in the history of Philippine basketball. Still, defense is an attitude, and FEU can play tough when they need to.

Field goal shooting. In an era when offense is harder to come by through college basketball, FEU scores 44.3 percent of the time for first place, Ateneo is at 39.8 percent, good for third. The Blue Eagles have had many different heroes in their wins, and they need someone to step up bigtime in the Finals. So far, Eric Salamat has not been prominent in the past two Finals series, and it is time for him to make a grand exit by playing the way he did back in high school for San Sebastian.

Three-point field goal shooting. FEU lords it over at 35.6 percent from beyond the arc, while Ateneo is fourth at 28.2 percent. The Blue Eagles lost a great deal of outside shooting with the loss of Jai Reyes, but are still formidable inside the three-point area. For FEU, though, players like Paul Sanga have made the bail-out triple a trademark, and wreak havoc on defenses of other teams. For Ateneo, the three-point shot is less of an option.

Free throw shooting. The Blue Eagles and Tamaraws are tops on the UAAP, heads apart at over 69 percent. But the Blue Eagles take more free throws, meaning they catch the defense guessing in transition, and are able to make the pass into the paint before the defense can react properly. Both teams have had their share of game-winning moments from the line this season, with the Blue Eagles with slightly more success.

Perimeter points. I think this is an underrated stat. FEU is second with 28.9 points per game, while Ateneo is sixth with 24.4. Ateneo sorely misses the clockwork jump shot of Rabeh Al-Hussaini, while FEU has gotten more confident with its big men from 12 to 18 feet. In a game where breaking defenses is crucial, this may be a more significant factor than people realize. FEU has been more precise because of the experience of its big men.

There is one big variable that may or may not determine the outcome of the series, though. This generation of Tamaraws has never been to the Finals. Most of the Blue Eagles have, twice. If FEU uses its breakthrough win in the Final Four (after going 0 for 5) as fuel, they will feel invincible. Ateneo, on the other hand, will be banking on staying cool under pressure. But whatever happens, the series will be thoroughly enjoyable.

Bill Velasco, Philippine Star